Your results are very close at this point actually. Warn lines for some segments is to be expected when using VBR encoding. What counts is the summary at bottom, and this line in particuar:
Average segment bitrate: 444.72 kbit/s (10.06 % of target)
You want to be less than within 10% of the target, and you are just over that.
To improve this more, using the particular sample you are using (bigbuckbunnyiphone_300.mp4), try making the Application.xml /HTTPStreamer ChunkDurationTarget value “9000”. And apply Patch 5, which will improve the accuracy of the bandwidth calculation for the playlist item, against which the bitrate of each segment is compared.
Before applying patch 5, check your Wowza version in a browser:
http://[wowza-address]:1935
Then see if you need to apply one or both patches on the devbuild page, starting from the bottom. You apply the oldest patch, then newer patches.
http://wowza.com/devbuild.html
Here is Patch 5, and please see the IMPORTANT note below.
http://www.wowza.com/downloads/WowzaMediaServer-2-1-2/WowzaMediaServer2.1.2-patch5.zip
Carefully ready the IMPORTANT!!! notice in the README.txt file of the patch. Several core components have been upgraded:
IMPORTANT!!!
Several core components have been updraded to newer versions. Before
applying this patch, delete the following files from your Wowza Media Server
installation:
[install-dir]/lib/bcprov-ext-jdk15-143.jar
[install-dir]/lib/commons-lang-2.4.jar
[install-dir]/lib/log4j-1.2.15.jar
Richard