As I understand it, Flash for Android will be feature locked at version 11.1 (continued bug/security fixes), while Adobe will continue to develop Flash 12 for Windows, Mac, and Linux OSs. So, I think this means that you can continue to develop in flash for Android for the near future (2 years?). Meanwhile we will all be looking to see where the industry manufacturers are heading. Right now the combination of H.264/ACC is supported on all major devices/OSs via Flash, Cupertino, or RTSP. In the HTML5 world, some browsers do not support one or the other codec.
We are all in the same boat: seeing where the OEMs are heading as they sort out their power-plays and software patents.